Matt Campbell was officially approved as Penn State’s 17th head football coach on Monday, kicking off a new era of Nittany Lion athletics brimming with excitement for the future.
Optimists viewed Campbell’s arrival as a major win, characterizing him as a “do more with less” coach, finding sustained success at Toledo before taking perennial bottom-feeder Iowa State to historic heights.
That claim has echoed throughout the fanbase and certainly has merit, but here’s how the actual numbers support that claim.
Wins
At the most basic level, winning is the most important metric in sports. Head coaches are perceived by their ability to win football games, and Campbell has done an exceptional job of that.
FBS teams didn’t move to a 12-game regular season until 2006, and the number of bowl games has also increased exponentially, lowering the barrier to entry for the postseason, so it’s unfair to compare total wins, as coaches had fewer opportunities per year in the past.
But looking at win percentage, a more balanced measurement, Toledo’s all-time record is 561-446, or 55.7%. In Campbell’s tenure, he went 35-15, or 70%.
The Cyclones’ all-time record — sans Campbell’s 10 seasons — is 513-630, or 44.9%. Even including his historic run, Iowa State is one of few power conference teams with a losing overall record. But with Campbell, the number is 72-55, or 56.7%, once again well over the average.
Combining the two schools, they have a winning percentage of 50% without Campbell and 60.5% with him.
It’s clear Campbell has exceeded the standard at both of his previous institutions. At Penn State, the program’s overall winning percentage is 68.8%.
Recruiting vs. results
Iowa State is a difficult place to recruit to for several reasons — historic lack of success, lack of funding relative to peers (more on that later), remote location distant from fertile recruiting territory, not in a “big two” conference, not the flagship university in the state — and Campbell’s tenure showed that.
Through 10 seasons with the Cyclones, his recruiting classes ranked No. 55, No. 52, No. 55, No. 46, No. 46, No. 59, No. 39, No. 42, No. 55 and No. 55, per the 247Sports composite rankings, an average of 50th.
Iowa State finished two seasons ranked in the top 15 of the AP Top 25. It’s also finished No. 66, No. 26, No. 38, No. 22, No. 10, No. 9, No. 41, No. 32, No. 26 and No. 34* in ESPN’s final FPI rankings, an average of 30th place. Taking out his first season, by far the lowest ranking, when a majority of the roster was recruited by the previous coach, the average is 26th place.
*Iowa State has opted out of a bowl game, but other schools may move as a result of postseason play and could change this ranking slightly.
Within the Big 12, Campbell’s Iowa State teams amassed a 50-40 record. Yet the recruiting classes ranked No. 8, No. 7, No. 7, No. 6, No. 6, No. 8 and No. 6 in the conference when it had 10 teams and No. 7, No. 10 and No. 13 after conference realignment, all in the bottom half of the Big 12 except for 2023.
Despite consistently being near the bottom of the conference in talent, Campbell’s squads produced eight winning seasons in Big 12 play. Before Campbell, Iowa State had one such season.
Development
Campbell’s 10 classes included just nine four-stars and no five-stars. Five-star rankings are meant to indicate first-round draft potential, hence why there are roughly 32 every cycle, while four-stars indicate NFL potential. Recruits ranked three-stars aren’t expected to play professionally.
Iowa State produced no draft picks in Campbell’s first three seasons — with much of the roster being recruited by the previous head coach — but has had 15 selections since, outperforming recruiting expectations.
That includes one first-round pick (defensive end Will McDonald IV) and two others taken early in the second round (running back Breece Hall at No. 36 and wide receiver Jayden Higgins at No. 34).
That doesn’t include some of Campbell’s recruits who will be drafted in the coming years, which could increase the number.
Campbell’s track record of lower-ranked recruiting classes doesn’t necessarily make him a bad recruiter, given the constraints on the program. But it also doesn’t prove he’s a good recruiter either. It does, however, prove his knack for development.
Finances
One of the difficulties of recruiting with the Cyclones is an inferior budget to most other power conference teams.
While the 2025 numbers haven’t been released yet, the Cyclones averaged $26.1 million in football spending across the last nine fiscal years, which was roughly on par with the Big 12 average from reporting universities (private universities aren’t required to disclose).
But the divide becomes evident when looking at recruiting spending (defined as transportation, lodging, meals and other recruiting expenses for coaches and athletes).
While the data encapsulates all sports and doesn’t include football-specific numbers, Iowa State spent an average of $1,584,129.33 per year on recruiting, while the other Big 12 schools spent an average of $1,995,575.32 during the same window. And the conference has increasingly lagged behind the SEC and Big Ten in that regard as well.
Conclusion: The data strongly supports the idea Campbell has done more with less throughout his head coaching tenure, using lacking resources and poor recruiting classes to produce the winningest stretch in Iowa State history and overperform expectations on a variety of metrics.
